These are the different exit polls results released in March 2017 post UP state elections.
Most exit polls predicted that the BJP will win most seats. Only three expected that the BJP will win by a major margin.
Only one exit poll result was the most precise.
Surprisingly, the BJP won without announcing its CM's candidate. The key reason behind this was the magic of PM Narendra Modi.
But another key role was played by... ..the Sangh Parivar. For example, "under a campaign called " Jan Jagran "the Sangh volunteers ensured that the people reach the polling booths. But the Sangh Parivar does a lot more than making people go out to vote. Many of us are aware of the Sangh Parivar's importance to the BJP. But whats the role of the Sangh Parivar? What role does it play at the ground level? This isn't well understood, thus, we will discuss it in this blog .
We'll take a case study of the Rampur district in Western Uttar Pradesh. And why is this important? Because it is relevant to understand the BJP's preparation for the 2022 state elections for Uttar Pradesh, for which the campaigning has already begun.
Why are the UP state elections important for Indian politics? I don't need to answer that question. Many of you might know a popular phrase used in Indian politics. It goes like this: the road to Delhi passes through Lucknow. This time the road might pave a path not only for the Prime Minister but also for the President. After the term of Ram Nath Kovind expires in July 2022, the UP elections could play a key role in deciding the next President. Since currently, the consolidated value of a vote for the NDA is slightly below the majority.
Before we begin, let's understand what the Sangh Parivar is, because many of us hear about it but we might not know about its roles and duties. The Sangh Parivar isn't a single organization but it's a collection of several organizations, the most well-known being RSS and BJP. While the organizations within this Parivar may have significant autonomy, the RSS still enjoys significant control over them. While some could argue that the importance of the Sangh Parivar has significantly increased with the election of PM Modi. It is also true that the rise of PM Modi was supported by the growth of the Sangh Parivar.
Walter Andersen and Shridhar Damle show in a book that the RSS in 1989 carried out 5,000 service projects; by 2015 it reached over 150,000. To understand how exactly the Sangh Parivar works, let's take the case study of Rampur, about which Avishek Jha wrote a detailed paper. Rampur is important for the Sangh Parivar because it has higher chances of polarisation. It's due to two reasons. First, nearly 50% of the population is Muslim. Second, the Lok Sabha seat has been a political stronghold of one of the Samajwadi Party's most prominent and controversial leaders, Azam Khan.
The seat was won by the Samajwadi Party in 2019 and by the BJP in 2014. The district also has five assembly constituencies, two of which are currently held by the BJP. Before going into details, lets first give you some background about the politics in UP. The electorate in UP can be divided into four parts - upper castes, Dalits, OBCs, and Muslims. The core voters for BJP are the upper castes. That's why the BJP was known as the Brahmin-Bania party. The Samajwadi Party's core voters are the Yadavs of the OBCs and the Muslims. And the BSP's core voters are the Jatavs of Dalits. Now there are non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits too.
And the primary objective of the Sangh Parivar in Uttar Pradesh has been to bring together the upper castes, the non-Yadav OBCs, and the non-Jatav Dalits. Now let's talk about what exactly the Sangh Parivar did to help the BJP win the 2017 elections. There̢۪re three factors behind this. First, the Sangh Parivar helped the BJP to increase its membership. For example, in 2014 and 2015, the party went on a massive membership drive and used OBC and Dalit influencers to woo fellow caste men and women. Prashant Jha mentioned in his book that this drive helped BJP gain nearly 15 lakh new members from the backward communities. Memberships drive alone doesn't attract voters.
The BJP also increased the representation of these communities within the party. For example, the Sangh Parivar tried winning the support of many non-Yadav OBCs. They focused on three communities “ Kurmis, Lodhis, and Sainis. For example, Suresh Gangwar was made the District Party President, Mohan Lodhi was given a ticket to fight the 2017 election, and Keshav Prasad Maurya was made the state president in 2016. These posts aren't announced through social media alone but local events are organized, with a broader purpose in mind. For example, the Akhil Bharatiya Lodhi Mahasabha organized a meeting in Rampur in December 2019. This event included the district leadership of the RSS-BJP, community leaders, village Pradhans, and ordinary citizens. The event was organized to welcome the newly elected district president of the BJP from the Lodhi community but served an important purpose of making the Lodhi community feel welcome. For example, during the event, the newly-elected district president paid obeisance to the portrait of Maharani Avanti Bai Lodhi.
Throughout the program, the new district leadership celebrated the Lodhis as the descendants of a warrior queen, extending a sense of respect to them. They even promised to increase the Lodhi community’s representation in towns, mandals, and district committees. Adding members from target communities and giving them representation isn't a novice trend. What gives Sangh Parivar an advantage is its ability to change its strategy based on the ground situation. It uses both Mandir and Mandal strategies to create a â€Å“Maha Hinduâ€� identity in Rampur. Take the case of Milak, a small town 22 kilometers from Rampur city, which is a reserved constituency for SC. The town has a significant population of Jatav Dalits. To consolidate the votes of the Jatavs, the Sangh Parivar has focused on two aspects: emphasizing the Hindu identity of the Jatavs and doing social work.
The Hindu identity of the communities is reinforced using a continuous tirade against Muslim appeasement, an emphasis on the cultural difference between the two communities, and the spread of Swami Dayananda Saraswati's teachings. The teachings speak about the Vedic time and the importance of a harmonious society, which helps break the barriers between the BJP and Jatavs. To consolidate the Hindu identity, the Sangh Parivar also organizes various festivals. For example, Rajiv Saxena organizes the Balaji Shobhayatra every year in Rampur, which is also referred to as the Milak Mahotsav. Apart from a focus on Hindu customs, there is also a focus on nationalism. For example, the Sangh organizes Baal Shakhas almost every day in Milak, where students are taught about India̢۪s culture and history.
They are taught about people like Veer Savarkar, and their contributions to the country. Sometimes, students are taught about the great personalities from their castes, who are portrayed in a Hinduized light They are told that except for Narendra Modi, no leader has honored the legacy of Babasaheb Ambedkar. The organizations like Vishwa Hindu Parishad, Hindu Jagran Manch, and Yogi Adityanath's Hindu Yuva Vahini also play a key role in consolidating Hindu voters. For example, they honor the â€Å“kar sevaksâ€� from Milak and Bilaspur who were part of the demolition of the Babri Mosque. Be it consolidating Hindu support for the Ram Mandir or tackling the rumors of Love Jihad, these organizations play a crucial role in helping create a polarised atmosphere to attract Dalit votes. Moreover, the Sangh Parivar also carry out sewa (social work) in Rampur. For example, in Ashoknagar, the Sangh helped a family from the Valmiki community with money for their daughter’s marriage.
In Rampur's Milak town, the Sangh conducted a survey to identify the poorest Dalit families and provided free education to their children. Finally, during the crunch time of the elections, the Sangh helps the BJP with political work. This includes providing feedback on the BJP̢۪s candidates, providing on-the-ground manpower for holding events, and speaking to voters about the BJP.
For example, for the 2014 and 2019 general elections, the Sangh made a separate list of voters at the booth level and mobilized its teachers to go and speak to the voters. Moreover, the RSS was also able to help the BJP attract Dalit Pradhans. One Pradhan from Rampur who moved to the BJP from BSP helped attract about 3000 votes for the BJP from his village. The activities in which the Sangh Parivar is involved are too difficult to carry out. So how does the Sangh Parivar manage to do it? Its because the Sangh Parivar isn't structured as a social organization but as a successful company. It has a highly committed workforce and a clear division of responsibilities.
The corporate-like structure of the Sangh Parivar can be contrasted with the position of opposition in Rampur. With a series of legal cases against Azam Khan and his family, the Samajwadi Party's control has been wavering. Congress has failed to win a single election in the district since 2012. Begum Noor Bano, the Congress candidate who won the 2004 general elections from Rampur, said that Congress' secular politics is ineffective in the polarising atmosphere created by SP and BJP. Finally, BSP is the weakest party as "the BJP has been able to lure a sizable chunk of Jatav.
What makes it difficult for these parties to recover in Rampur is the fact they are up against a network of organizations and not a single political organization. And these organizations are using both Mandal and Mandir to entice voters. And while this video is about Rampur, which doesn't reflect what may happen in other districts in UP, it does show how challenging an opponent BJP would be for the 2022 state elections.
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